"Best" Closer in Baseball?
Jim Caple of ESPN wrote an article in which he argues that the closer is the most overrated position in baseball and the save is the most overrated statistic in baseball. Definitely worth a read.
I do believe it is important to have a defined closer on your team – while theoretically, having a closer-by-committee is more effective, pitchers are nevertheless humans with certain needs for defined roles and, sometimes, horse-blinders. Meaning, I still think most relief pitchers in baseball need to know exactly what their role is on the team: relief in a bad spot in an inning, 8th inning setup man, 9th inning closer, etc. Plus, the fact of the matter is that there really aren’t enough pitchers who are good enough that the team can say “X will not give up a run in an inning more than 25% of the time.”
The “SAVE” statistic, on the other hand, is ridiculous. Here is the definition of a “save” according to official baseball rules:
A pitcher is credited with a save when he finishes a game won by his club, is not the winning pitcher, and either (a) enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning, (b) enters the game with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck, or (c) pitches effectively for at least three innings.
On the surface, okay. But with time, certain situations become ridiculous save spots. (c) in particular is dumb. However, that really only happens maybe a handful of times for a team. It’s really (a) that is problematic. There really isn’t that much pressure, relatively, when a pitcher comes in the 9th inning, with no one on base, and with a 3-run lead. Yet, he’ll get a save, he’ll do this 20-50 times a season, and he’ll get paid more money than other capable relievers simply because of this.
A solution?
I propose a statistic called “True Save”. I would just call this the “save” and abolish the old save, but baseball does love history and being able to compare players across eras, and even obsolete stats are revered today (batting average and pitcher wins are somewhat included on this list). But let’s call the “True Save” the following:
(1) When a pitcher starts the 9th inning with his team up by ONE run and finishes the inning without letting in a run, or
(2) When a pitcher enters the 9th inning with the tying run at the plate and finishes the inning without letting in that tying run.
Simple as that. I really can’t think of a stress situation that doesn’t involve actual risk of an impending loss of the lead. THOSE should be the save situations we measure. As an example of what would NOT be a save under this new stat, say a closer starts the 9th with a 3 run lead. He goes a bit erratically, lets in 2 runs, but manages to get that third out with a one-run lead. This is NOT a save! He’s created his own stressful situation and worked his way out of it. That’s just bad pitching.
So this is my solution. I’m sure someone out there has come up with this. Have they? In any case, what do you think?
